The State of PvP: Is GvG Dead?
By Branskins, posted Jul 30, 01:36 PM
Welcome to the first part of what I hope will be a continued series. The State of PvP will analyze various aspects of PvP by looking at where it has come, studying why it is where it is, and how it can be improved in the future. Without further ado, I would like to present the very first article in this series, The State of PvP: Is GvG Dead? Before anyone jumps to any conclusions with this title, I would like to point out that I went into writing this article with one thought and finished with a slightly different opinion.
Read on to learn what I think the verdict is…
Author’s note: This article was originally started during the first week of July and finished around the second week. However, after the launch of the new website was delayed, the article also had to be delayed. After this article was finished, ArenaNet increased the K-value, the amount of rank your guild can gain or lose in a single game, from 5 to 15. Because of this change, the ladder may have changed slightly, making some of the images and data used in this article inaccurate. This change will be explored in the next article. However, the point of this article still remains.
Many players will remember that Guild Wars was originally described as a CORPG, a Competitive/Cooperative (although I believe the cooperative was added later) Online Role Playing Game. Originally, PvP was considered to be the end game, where players who finished the PvE game were supposed to continue playing. After the release of the game, and after several catastrophic events caused major setbacks for guilds competing on the ladder, namely the disapproval over the acquisition of skills, ArenaNet began focusing more on what the majority of players were playing, PvE. Over the course of four years, this shift from the hardcore to the casual is most obvious. Looking at the current ladder and games in observer mode, one question stands out in my mind: Is GvG dead?
In order to declare an answer to this question, I decided to analyze some of the information ArenaNet provides us on the official ladder; the seemingly useless “Rank over time” and “Rating over time” charts. To begin, I thought starting with the top five guilds should reveal some answers.
Rebel Rising is one of the most respected guilds, housing popular players such as Polly, Awowa, and Three Pounds. However, although they hold the top spot, they have actually not played under Rebel Rising for some time now, instead choosing to play under their smurf guild, Rebel Rising Extended Edition. I have no information for why they are doing this, but I find it pretty disappointing that they would just allow their main guild to camp on the best spot on the ladder. However, after doing this research, I am beginning to understand why they would do this. Looking at their charts reveals that playing under their account risks losing the best spot on the ladder as it has remained unchallenged for several months now.
These charts, taken from the official website, show that Rebel Rising has not engaged in a ladder match since at least March. During this period, their rank has not wavered once. Like I said before, they are playing it safe by smurfing under their other guild, as playing under this guild has more downside than upside. If they win, they win and their rank stays the same. If they lose, they risk losing rank. After all, isn’t it better to claim the unchallenged number one spot while also playing under another guild that is already in the top 20? The ladder seems to support such manipulation.
The next guild, Bruderschaft Der Verdammnis, does not make me any happier either.
The guild in the second best spot on the ladder has been able to hold its position since April or before without playing a single game. The rank over time shows a dip around May. I should point out that this dip in rank is a result of healthy activity from other guilds, as active guilds should be able to push down inactive guilds. However, when looking a few days after this dip, you can see they obtained their original rank again. This gain in rank did not occur from activity, but most likely from the more active guild losing some games that pushed it back down. In this case, inactivity seems to have rewarded Bruderschaft Der Verdammnis as their previous position is quickly regained without doing anything.
So far, two of the most contested spots, one would think at least, on the ladder have been held with inactivity for several months.
Delta Formation, the third best ranked guild, is another famous guild that has been on the ladder for a while now. Again, a once active guild has been able to hold a once-respected spot by being inactive.
While the fact that Delta Formation is still inactive does not make me happy, it is a little satisfying to see them losing some of their rank through their period of inactivity. They were once rank two for a few days, then rank three for another couple of days, then rank 4 for half a month, and then eventually settling into rank 3. I would like to look at their charts in the future to see if their rank continues to waver, but as it stands right now, the fact that they are able to maintain these respectable ranks without even playing any games is very disappointing and really tells me that guild activity has died down quite a bit. After all, these are the three best spots on the ladder and they are being held by inactive guilds.
So far, I have only looked at the top three guilds, and already the results have been very disappointing. The guilds holding some of the best spots on the ladder have held them through a period of inactivity. What is this saying? The obvious answer is that the ladder has lost a lot of activity, at least since March. No guild has been able to challenge Rebel Rising’s top spot. In a healthy ladder, the top spots should be changing consistently as more and more guilds challenge them. For Rebel Rising to hold this spot without even playing for several months shows that there is not enough activity for its spot to even be challenged. And when a guild even breaks into the top 5, it is punished by being active since it risks losing its hard earned rating with each game it plays.
Straight Outta Kamadan has been a very active guild for many months now, participating in many tournaments throughout the month. Their activity log reflects this activity quite well,
From March to May, this guild was highly active and was able to maintain a stable rank. However, from May through now, activity seems to have declined. While the point of this article is only to point out this trend, I hope to look into reasons for this waning activity in the future.
This Cape Is A Lie was another very active guild, but they seem to have hit a bit of inactivity,
While I do not have much more to say about these charts, I would like to point out the effect the loss of rating had on their rank toward the end of May. Notice how that small dip in rating resulted in a jump in rank? This could be insignificant, but I still find it to be interesting. Is this loss in rating and subsequent gain in rating a result of overall inactivity of the entire ladder? Or is it the result of many guilds losing rating around the same time? Or is it just a fluke in the chart?
The Light at the End of the Tunnel?
Whats Going On
Whats Going On’s activity log is beginning to show signs of improvement, as it goes against the previous trends. After a period of inactivity, they seem to be becoming more active. However, it remains unknown whether their activity will continue in the future, or if they will continue to flat line through July.
While Whats Going On may look a little more active than the top five guilds, it still does not display enough activity for a healthy ladder to exist. During my research, this was the point where I wanted to scream, “Guild Wars PvP is dead!” because the first five guilds I analyzed were all extremely inactive. However, once I hit this next guild, I Disposable Heroes I, I was pleasantly surprised to finally find an active guild.
I Disposable Heroes I
This activity log is very impressive. They have had consistent rating growth since at least March. This is indicative of a very healthy ladder. However, if you notice, there are small flat lines in April, May, June, and the beginning of July. I should note that these periods of inactivity are not nearly as bad as the previous guilds. Each period of inactivity is followed by activity. Or is it the other way around? Regardless, these charts show a very active guild in a list of otherwise inactive guilds. Finally a ray of hope. (I refrained from making the horrible nonsensical pun the first ray of judgment. That just would have not been funny…)
Other Top 20 Guilds
Under Pressure
History Repeats Itself
Edible Granite Pencil
These last three guilds allowed me to restore a little confidence in the ladder. Although the top five guilds are very inactive, the next few are at least playing. Although each chart shows these guilds to have small periods of inactivity, that is to be expected as it is almost impossible to play a guild battle every night due to the complexity of the game; GvG is not something you can just quickly jump into without some sort of preparation.
However, the fact that the top five guilds are inactive also upsets me. One major point of having a ladder is to compete against other guilds for the top spot. Right now, this just does not seem to be happening. Rebel Rising has had the number one spot for many months without playing. The other four spots have also been held through inactivity. This really indicates to me that there is not enough activity for guilds to surpass the rating of these guilds. Shouldn’t the ladder reward the players who are active and supporting the ladder?
At this point, I am not quite convinced that the guild ladder is healthy, as there seems to be mixed results in the top 20. While the bottom 20 may be active, the top five are very inactive, creating a very confusing picture of the overall status of GvG. If I was a guild on the ladder, what reward is there if the top five spots are being held by guilds camping them?
In the Middle
After reviewing the top 20 guilds, I decided to look for more activity in the middle of the ladder. After all, if the “middleclass” guilds are not active, the ladder would look horrible.
Let’s take a look at some charts from a few randomly selected guilds from rank 401 – 500.
Little Bad Planet
This chart may be a little confusing to understand. Because the chart only goes back to around the end of May, there hasn’t been enough games played over a long period of time to really assess whether they are an active guild or not. On July 1, 2009, when this image was captured, the guild’s win-loss record was 20-4. For a guild that has played almost 25 games over a span of two months, their delta rating over time has not changed very drastically. While the guild’s activity is in question, I have to note, as of July 5, 2009, their record remains unchanged and their rank is now 398, an increase of several points. A guild that has gained rank without even playing…interesting.
Guild Wars Super Star
This chart is a little clearer. This guild was a little active during April. During this time, their rank dropped significantly. It seems that around mid-May, after a period of inactivity, the guild’s rank spiked as the guild became more active. However, this quickly dropped off shortly before the guild became inactive again. It is interesting, that during this period of inactivity, their rank has wavered up and down, with the rank slowly going up. This seems to be a strange indication as guilds must be playing for their rank to go up or down. This shows that while guilds may be active, there isn’t enough activity to push the guild’s rank down. Because their rank is being pushed up, there isn’t enough activity below the guild to push the guild down. In my opinion, this is a pretty bad indication for the ladder. I would be much happier if this guilds rank was pushed down during periods of inactivity, as it would indicate that there are more guilds playing.
One Last Time
This chart makes the previous guild a little clearer. During a long period of inactivity from May until the present, with a small trough in May where they lost a game or two, their rating has gradually gone up. Again, this indicates to me that there is not enough activity below this guild’s rank to push it down. This is beginning to paint a very grim picture for me because not only does the top 20 show very little activity, the middleclass of the ladder is showing less activity. In a healthy ladder, rank would go down during long times of inactivity as other active guilds passed them in rank. However, with the opposite happening, guilds are gaining rank while inactive. That just doesn’t seem right to me.
Darkest Forces
This chart is a little healthier than the previous ones. This chart shows a guild that loses rank as they lose and gains rank as they win. I would like to note that over time, as the rating goes up, their rank spikes a little more. The small gain in rank in mid-May resulted in a small gain in rank. However, small gains in rating during June resulted in larger jumps in rank. This indicates to me that more guilds are becoming inactive, resulting in larger gains in rank (remember I pointed out that inactive guilds wavered up and down in rank through periods of inactivity. The loss in rank most likely occurs because of situations like this).
This One Is Our Last Chance
Again, this chart is showing some of the characteristics of the last few charts. Smaller gains in rating are giving guilds a bigger boost in rank. Also, during the inactivity from the beginning of the May to the present resulted in a gradual increase in rank. Like I said before, this is a very unhealthy indication that the ladder is slowly becoming more and more inactive.
United Noob Busters
This chart gave me quite a laugh. During their inactive month of April, their rank seemed to be growing gradually. Now when they did play during May, they lost a game, sending their rank down by quite a bit. This seems to be a competing idea because their rank would have continued to gone up without playing, but by playing it went down! Now, luckily, they won some games in the beginning of June, sending their rank way up. Again, note during the current inactivity their rank continues to waver in the favor of growth over decay.
This was only a few of the games between the ranks of 401 and 500. As I have shown, these “middleclass” guilds indicate a very unhealthy ladder. I could understand activity being less in the top 20 since it is such a small pool of guilds and it is very difficult to reach, but when guilds in the middle of the ladder are gaining rank while being inactive, it just seems very unhealthy to me.
These guilds in the middle of the ladder are also far more important than the top guilds. It should be these middleclass guilds that drive the activity of the ladder. As less and less guilds are playing, activity in the middle begins shrinking with only guilds at the top end and the low end of the ladder showing any real activity.
The Bottom
In order to complete this kind of informal research, I thought it would be interesting to look at the bottom 100 guilds. So far we have looked at the top 20, the middle 100, and now the bottom 100.
For a little more clarity, let’s look at Astro Pirates, rank 901 on July 1, 2009,
This one case completes what amounts to a horrible picture to me; a guild with a record of 0 – 1, who sits at rank 901, and has not played since at least May. Looking at their rank over time, we can see that their rank has gradually gone up over a period of inactivity. This is similar to what I have previously said, but the fact that a guild in the bottom 100 displays these same characteristics really spells out disaster for me. There are only 99 guilds below this one, and there is not enough activity to push it down? This also tells me that new players are not entering GvG at any quick pace.
All in all, I will have to say that although I started this article with the idea that PvP is dead, after doing some research, I do have to say that I do not think I was completely off mark. However, while it is certainly not dead, it is certainly not very healthy either. This is why my verdict is that the current state of PvP resembles that of a zombie. Yes you read that correctly, a zombie. While the current PvP scene is not healthy, it is certainly not completely dead. After all, isn’t that what a zombie essentially is?
I would also like to point out that the currently ladder has been a zombie walking on its last crooked leg since the introduction of tournaments. That’s right, I firmly believe the introduction of tournaments has destroyed what was once a more healthy ladder. Of course with Guild Wars being an older game, inactivity is expected, but the current rate of guilds becoming inactive is very alarming. When tournaments were introduced, guilds found the rewards through winning tournaments to be far more rewarding than continuously playing on the ladder. It isn’t uncommon now to find guilds that only play in tournaments. This has also made observer mode a little stale. It used to be exciting to log in to watch observer mode, but since the introduction of tournaments, observer mode has become less and less exciting as guilds would rather try to win monthly tournaments than be the top guild on the guild ladder. Rebel Rising is able to achieve both the best spot and participate in monthly tournaments with no consequence.
The Future
While I didn’t want to focus too much on this part as I would like to write future articles on this, I would hate to leave anyone hanging with that I think ArenaNet needs to do to make this zombie seem more alive. Sound twisted? It certainly is…
We all know, Guild Wars 2 is coming any time in the next two years (my prediction still stands that the first beta is at the end of this year with a release of mid to the end of next year), but that doesn’t mean ArenaNet should entirely ignore the current game. We already have monthly skill updates and a new system of testing skills coming soon, but these are not really reviving the community.
My first major suggestion is for ArenaNet to begin fostering the community again. There are already several elite websites, but none of those really cater to the PvP enthusiast. Remember the old days of Fansite Fridays? That was one of the best ways to get the community involved and excited about the future of Guild Wars. Bringing these back would bring some excitement to the community.
My second major suggestion is to bring PvP to the forefront once again. It is understandable that the game may still have a PvE-focus, but please redo the website and make PvP the focus. The Guild Ladder button use to be a big button that everyone could see. Now it is hidden under Network News… If they are reluctant to touch the main website, maybe they should launch a new website with a complete focus on PvP, with ladder news, tournament updates, skill update ideas so community forums can discuss them, etc… They could do so much to provide a hub for people to read and understand the complexities of PvP. As part of these changes, I really think ArenaNet should provide an Observer Mode-only client to allow people to observe matches without actually having to own the game. It should still ask for a login name, but it would be one way for people to get interested in PvP by directly observing before buying the game.
ArenaNet needs to consolidate and improve the current ladder. They need to bring back ladder decay to push inactive guilds down and active guilds up. They should decrease the current ladder to display the top 500 instead of the top 1000 so it makes the ladder seem more meaningful by showing guilds that play more than one game. They should also increase the Observer Mode threshold from above rank 100 to above rank 250 to allow people to observe more exciting matches.
And lastly, ArenaNet needs to make PvP more rewarding. I outlined some these changes in my latest Dream Patch, but I would like to state it again. The biggest way to attract the more casual player is to provide rewards people want. They need to make people want to GvG and to reach the top 20. I will leave these kind of changes to their imagination, but I believe by making GvG ladder play more rewarding, it could attract casual and hardcore players alike.
This is only a small list of ways to improve the current game. I have many more in my Dream Patch. I will also be visiting some of these suggestions in the future, going in-depth with them to fully explain the benefit of each.
Thank you for reading the first of what I hope to be a series of articles. If you have any feedback or would just like to post your opinion on the state of PvP, please post it on our forums. If you would like to contact me for any reason, please private message me or email me at Branskins @ gmail.com (no spaces).
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